A nightmare scenario of huge cuts to Tube and bus services and an end to all new cycle schemes was outlined on Wednesday evening by Sadiq Khan.
This could result in an 18% reduction in bus services and a nine % cut on the London Underground, City Hall warned.
All proposed cycle schemes other than those already under construction would be axed.
Key
roads such as the Rotherhithe tunnel, the A40 Westway and the A12
Gallows Corner flyover would also be at risk of closure because of a
lack of cash for repairs.
This
is because Transport for London has discovered a £1.3bn funding gap and
will have to introduce a strategy of “managed decline” unless the
Government guarantees cash to maintain the capital’s transport network
beyond April 2023, the Mayor said.
A TfL source said cuts would
have to be made “quite quickly” without funding guarantees. “We have
less than 30 days to save the London recovery,” a source said.
The
effect would be to “drag London back to the 1970s and 80s” - an era of
an ageing, infrequent and unreliable transport network.
TfL
is already required to break even by April 2023 in terms of its
day-to-day income and expenditure, with fares having to match running
costs.
But it needs £1.3bn in capital funding from 2023/24 to pay
for longer term upkeep of its assets, from Tube stations and trains to
main roads and bridges.
TfL was not awarded any capital funds in
last month’s Budget and transport bosses say it now needs to prepare for
a scenario where government funding comes to a halt.
The
potential impact was laid bare in papers published on Wednesday night in
advance of a meeting of TFL’s finance committee next week.
TfL’s
current six-month operational bailout is due to end on December 11,
with the organisation seeking £500m for the remainder of the current
financial year and £1.2bn for 2022/23 to keep services at the same
level.
Dire warnings are commonplace in the run-up to negotiations
being finalised but the concerns about the lack of funding for capital
projects being expressed on Wednesday is said to be of a different
magnitude.
Concerns have been exacerbated by the slower than hoped
return of passengers to public transport as the pandemic eases. Tube
ridership is 65 per cent of normal while bus numbers are 71 per cent of
normal.
The rising cost of inflation – which hit 4.2 per cent today – is also a worry in terms of how it affects TFL’s supply chain.
Reducing the cost of bus services will take time as routes are typically negotiated for periods of around five years.
The
currently unfunded Piccadilly line signalling upgrade will also have to
be ditched and a halt placed on further step-free schemes at Tube
stations.
Mr Khan said: “Transport for London is dealing with an unprecedented financial crisis caused by the pandemic.
“We
are now less than a month away from TfL’s emergency funding deal
expiring on December 11. Unless the Government provides the long-term
funding needed to maintain our public transport network, there will be
no choice but to make significant cuts to services just as demand is
growing again.
"This would mean fewer, less frequent and more
run-down bus and tube services for Londoners, making it more difficult
to travel around the city. It would also mean more road and tunnel
closures due to a lack of funding to maintain key transport
infrastructure.
“The widespread disruption and gridlock all these
changes would cause would not only unfairly punish millions of Londoners
for the impact of the pandemic on TfL’s finances, but would put the
national economic recovery at risk.”
Andy Byford, London’s
Transport Commissioner said: “There is no UK recovery from the pandemic
without a London recovery and there is no London recovery without a
properly funded transport network in the capital. During the pandemic
our staff have worked tirelessly to keep services running and demand for
public transport in London continues to recover and grow, with demand
now regularly hitting 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
“The
Government is investing in better transport around the country, which
we welcome, and TfL is ready to help the Government address challenges
beyond the capital. But a failure to provide stability and certainty for
TfL means that we are now on the brink of entering a period of the
managed decline of transport in London.
“I know first-hand the
damage that underinvestment can wreak on a city’s transport system as I
had to wrestle with outdated signalling systems, worn out infrastructure
and inadequate capacity while serving as President of New York City
Transit.
“I have repeatedly warned that a similar situation could
easily befall London if TfL is starved of funding. Without meaningful
sustained investment we will see a damaging vicious circle of
underinvestment and service cuts, dragging London back to the 1970s and
80s era of an ageing, infrequent and unreliable transport network.
“The
combination of falling public transport services, worsening roads and
road asset closures would cause wide-spread disruption and choke the
city in gridlock, damaging the London and UK economies and putting
London at a disadvantage against its global competitors.
“TfL and
the Mayor stand ready and willing to work with the Government for the
benefit of London and the UK, but the Government must act now to save
the recovery.”
